It’s my favorite time of year, it’s Oscar time!!!! I love
the Oscars so much and I have watched every year without fail since 2002. And
yes, even with all the controversy surrounding this year’s Oscars, I am still
very excited. Excited because I love the Oscars and excited to see how big of a
train wreck this year’s ceremony will be.
Best
Picture
And the nominees are:
Black
Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian
Rhapsody
The
Favourite
Green
Book
Roma
A Star
Is Born
Vice
My pick: Roma. Here
is the thing: usually the Oscars has one or two frontrunners for the biggest
award of the night. This year is different. There are no frontrunners in this
category. Roma has a 30% chance of winning here (last I heard) and those odds
are really low. Last year, The Shape of Water was the obvious frontrunner (I think
it had like an 80% chance of winning) and
then it won. No surprise there. Even with La La Land and Moonlight, both had a
decent shot. But this year the film with the best shot has only a 30% chance?
That’s just weird. This award could go several different ways. It could go to
the film with a ton of nominations and praise: Roma. However, Roma is a foreign
language film and a foreign language film has NEVER won Best Picture. Also, it
will probably win in the foreign language category so, voters might not want to
award it twice. Then there is Green Book, a feel-good film, voters love that.
But, the film has had some controversy (regarding historical accuracy, among
other things) and that could turn voters off. The Favourite has lots of
nominations and is a period drama. And the Academy loves period dramas. But the
film doesn’t have much momentum in the other big categories, so I don’t think
it will win here. And let’s be real: Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther don’t
have a chance (maybe if there were a most popular film category, otherwise no).
There’s BlacKkKlansman, but I just don’t think the Academy will give Spike Lee
film a win here. Vice has very mixed critical reviews, so I don’t think it has
a shot here. That leaves A Star Is Born. This film has great reviews and people
love Gaga, but I just don’t think this walks away with the prize. So, I’m going
with Roma. But if Green Book or A Star Is Born wins I won’t die of shock.
Actor
in a Leading Role
And the nominees are:
Christian
Bale (Vice)
Bradley
Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem
Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami
Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo
Mortensen (Green Book)
My pick: Rami Malek.
I know Bohemian Rhapsody has mixed reviews. I know it has controversy around
the director/directors. I know it is a by-the-numbers biopic. However, Rami
Malek is INCREDIBLE as Freddie Mercury. Malek completely transformed and BECAME
Freddie Mercury. Freddie Mercury is the greatest performer of all time (at
least in my opinion) and to see someone embody his energy and charisma was astounding.
Also, Freddie Mercury is BELOVED by so many people, that a vote for Malek feels
like a vote for Freddie. This one is a lock.
Actor
in a Supporting Role
And the nominees are:
Mahershala
Ali (Green Book)
Adam
Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam
Elliot (A Star Is Born)
Richard
E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam
Rockwell (Vice)
My pick: Mahershala
Ali. Yes, Ali won in this category only a couple years ago. And yes, the
Academy might not want to give him another so soon. But, I would like to point
out that the Academy gave Christoph Waltz another Oscar (for Django Unchained)
just 3 years after his first win (for Inglorious Bastards). And I think the
Academy will do the same for Ali. Richard E. Grant is a dark horse, but if Ali
doesn’t win, Grant might snag this award. But don’t count on it happening.
Actress
in a Leading Role
And the nominees are:
Yalitza
Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn
Close (The
Wife)
Olivia
Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga
(A Star Is Born)
Melissa
McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
My pick: Glenn Close.
Glenn Close has been nominated 7 times and has never won an Oscar. Yet, I don’t
recall ever seeing the same outrage for her as there was for Leonardo DiCaprio
when he was passed over for an Oscar, which is wrong on so many levels. Close
by all accounts gives a fantastic performance in this film and is a legend in
the industry. However, Lady Gaga could be an upset here. I’ll explain: the
Academy loves it when someone (say a singer) proves they can act. When this
happens, the Academy is like: “What, oh my goodness, this person can sing and act! Give them the Award!” Which is
how Jennifer Hudson won her Oscar (for Dreamgirls) and how Cher won her Oscar
(for Moonstruck). I mean Gaga underwent an arduous transformation: she went
from a singer to, bear with me, playing
a singer in a film. I mean come on! How is that even possible?!
Actress
in a Supporting Role
And the nominees are:
Amy
Adams (Vice)
Marina
de Tavira (Roma)
Regina
King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma
Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel
Weisz (The Favourite)
My pick: Regina King.
Talk about legends in this business. King has been acting for decades and this
is only her first Oscar nomination. She is pretty much a lock for this award.
Although, I would like to point out that Amy Adams has been nominated over and
over again, and has never won an Oscar. Yet, I don’t recall the internet
shouting “give Amy her Oscar already!” like they did for Leonardo DiCaprio
(yes, I will keep bringing him up).
Animated
Feature Film
And the nominees are:
Incredibles
2
Isle
of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph
Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse
My pick: Spider-Man:
Into the Spider-Verse. Here’s the thing, I really enjoyed Incredibles 2, it
was great. I’m sure Isle of Dogs is great too (still haven’t watched it yet,
but I’m sure it’s great). And I would love for a stop-motion film to win in
this category someday. But Spider-Man was AMAZING! Not only was it a great
superhero film and a great Spider-Man film, but it also happened to be a
groundbreaking animated film as well. The animation in this film is mind
boggling. I have never seen anything like it before. This film pushed the
boundaries of animation (and it was also a great story with great voice
acting). It deserves this award.
Cinematography
And the nominees are:
Cold
War
The
Favourite
Never
Look Away
Roma
A Star
Is Born
My pick: Roma.
Alfonso Cuaron could make history a couple times at this Award ceremony. His
film could be the first foreign film to win Best Picture. And he could be the
first director to win for both directing and cinematography. From everything
I’ve seen Cuaron is a safe bet for this award, more on the other awards he’s
nominated for later.
Costume
Design
And the nominees are:
The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black
Panther
The
Favourite
Mary
Poppins Returns
Mary
Queen of Scots
My pick: The
Favourite. This one is tough. Black Panther had amazing costumes. And Mary
Queen of Scots is a period drama about royalty. But, both Mary Queen of Scots
and The Favourite (yes that is the correct way to spell this film, British
spelling applies) are period dramas about royalty. So, who should the award go
to? Well, the woman who designed the costumes for The Favourite, also designed
costumes for Mary Poppins Returns. And she is nominated twice in this category.
And while that could split the vote and let someone else win, my money is The
Favourite taking this one.
Directing
And the nominees are:
Spike
Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Pawel
Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos
Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso
Cuaron (Roma)
Adam
McKay (Vice)
My pick: Alfonso
Cuaron. This is another tough one. Spike Lee has been in this business
forever and has never won an Oscar. In fact, an African American has never won
a Best Director Oscar. So, maybe the Academy will make history and award Spike
this award. But I doubt it. Cuaron is an Academy favorite (he has won in this
category before, for Gravity). Plus, his film has garnered enormous praise. I
think he takes this one home. But if Spike won, I would be pretty happy.
Documentary
(Feature)
And the nominees are:
Free
Solo
Hale
County This Morning, This Evening
Minding
the Gap
Of
Fathers and Sons
RBG
My pick: Free Solo.
O.k. let me get this rant out of the way: Won’t You Be My Neighbor WASN’T EVEN
NOMINATED, are you KIDDING me?!!! Won’t You Be My Neighbor is one of the most
successful and critically acclaimed documentaries of the past several years and
it didn’t even get nominated?! What is wrong with you Academy?! O.k. rant over.
Wait, Three Identical Strangers also wasn’t nominated?! Oh, you can bite me
Academy. Bite. Me. O.k. second rant over. This could go two ways: RBG could
take this award (it’s a film about Ruth Bader Ginsburg) or the award could go
to Free Solo (a film about a man free-climbing El Capitan). Both have gotten
heavy praise. But, I’m going with Free Solo. Why? Well, this film had a big
push in the theaters when it was released and was recently put back in theaters
in IMAX. So, it’s fresh in voters’ minds. Plus, there is the fact that the
climber could have easily died while attempting this climb, and that makes for
an amazing story. But if RBG wins I won’t be surprised.
Documentary
(Short Subject)
And the nominees are:
Black
Sheep
End
Game
Lifeboat
A
Night At The Garden
Period.
End Of Sentence.
My pick: Period. End
Of Sentence. I may be biased because I’ve only seen one of these films and
that film is: Period. End Of Sentence. However, bias aside, this film had a BIG
marketing push and is currently available on Netflix. Meaning voters had a
greater shot of seeing this film than the others in this category. Also, this
film is uplifting and that can make all the difference sometimes. This film is
about Indian women fighting the stigma of menstruation by making and selling
sanitary napkins. It’s an important film and very well made. Now, the other
films in this category are also important and impressive, but Period has the
best shot at this award. And, I’m pretty happy about that.
Film
Editing
And the nominees are:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian
Rhapsody
The
Favourite
Green
Book
Vice
My pick: Bohemian
Rhapsody. Another tough category. This award could go to Vice, a film that
has quick and edgy editing. But, I think it will go to Bohemian Rhapsody. For a
couple reasons. First, most voters have seen the videos out there comparing the
footage of Live Aid with that scene in the film, and it’s practically identical
(impressively so). The second reason is: this film had 2 different directors.
For those who don’t know: Bryan Singer started directing this film, but then he
was fired (for various reasons, look it up). Then, a second director came in,
finished filming the movie, and then had to heavily edit it to make it look
like one cohesive movie. A difficult job, to be sure. So, for those reasons I
think Bohemian Rhapsody takes this award.
Foreign
Language Film
And the nominees are:
Capernaum
(Lebanon)
Cold
War (Poland)
Never
Look Away (Germany)
Roma
(Mexico)
Shoplifters
(Japan)
My pick: Roma.
This is too hard! I just don’t know! If Roma wins this award, does it make it
less or more likely that it will win Best Picture? Or will the Academy give
this award to Cold War (since the director got a nomination too, which is
pretty rare for a foreign language film)? Or will the Academy do the unheard
of, and give both the Foreign Language award and Best Picture award to the same
film? Flip a coin. It could easily go either way. But my gut says Roma takes
this one.
Makeup
and Hairstyling
And the nominees are:
Border
Mary
Queen of Scots
Vice
My pick: Vice.
The makeup artists made Christian Bale (aka Batman) look like Dick Cheney. Is
there anything more to say?
Music
(Original Score)
And the nominees are:
Black
Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If
Beale Street Could Talk
Isle
of Dogs
Mary
Poppins Returns
My pick: If Beale
Street Could Talk. Talk about tough. I know the Academy loves Alexandre
Desplat, but he won last year (for The Shape of Water). So, Desplat is probably
out. And I don’t think Black Panther or Mary Poppins have any shot here. So, it
comes down to BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk. I love both scores,
but Beale Street was incredible. I have to go with my heart, and my heart says:
If Beale Street Could Talk.
Music
(Original Song)
And the nominees are:
All
The Stars (Black Panther)
I’ll
Fight (RBG)
The
Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
Shallow
(A Star Is Born)
When A
Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
My pick: Shallow (A
Star Is Born). Is this even a question? Of course the INCREDIBLY popular
song (that has gotten a ton of radio play) will win. It’s not even a contest.
Personally, I think Gaga should have won this award a few years ago for “Till
It Happens to You” (look it up, especially her Academy performance), so I won’t
be mad if she wins here.
Production
Design
And the nominees are:
Black
Panther
The
Favourite
First
Man
Mary
Poppins Returns
Roma
My pick: The
Favourite. This award could wind up going to Black Panther. It doesn’t have
a great shot, but it has a shot. However, The Favourite has massive period set
pieces, and the Academy LOVES stuff like that. I wouldn’t be upset if Black
Panther won though.
Short
Film (Animated)
And the nominees are:
Animal
Behaviour
Bao
Late
Afternoon
One
Small Step
Weekends
My pick: Bao. I
watched all of these shorts (well except for Weekends) and they were all great.
A couple are real tearjerkers. However, Bao is very popular. It played before
Incredibles 2, so LOTS of people saw this one. Also, it’s Pixar. And, it’s just
a really great short film. It should win.
Short
Film (Live Action)
And the nominees are:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
My pick: Skin.
If you can sit through all these shorts and not sink into a depression, good
for you. Pretty much every one of these shorts (with the exception of
Marguerite) deals with children in extreme peril (or, spoilers, death). What I’m
saying is, don’t watch these if you want to ever be happy again! That being
said, I know this award won’t go to Detainment, since that film has way too
much controversy surrounding it. So, I think this award will go to Skin. Skin
is a film about racism and it has some well-known actors in it, so I think the
Academy will give it the award.
Sound
Editing
And the nominees are:
Black
Panther
Bohemian
Rhapsody
First
Man
A
Quiet Place
Roma
My pick: A Quiet
Place. The fact that A Quiet Place only got 1 nomination speaks volumes
about how the Academy views horror movies, but also how it views movies that were
released early in the year. Very few films that are released early in the year wind
up with Oscar nominations (notable exceptions to this rule include: Get Out and
The Grand Budapest Hotel). Turns out the Academy has a very short memory. That being
said, I think the film that is about sound should win an award for sound. Call
me crazy, but that just seems to make sense. I could see this going to Bohemian
Rhapsody, since it is a film about music, but I hope the award goes to A Quiet
Place.
Sound
Mixing
And the nominees are:
Black
Panther
Bohemian
Rhapsody
First
Man
Roma
A Star
Is Born
My pick: Bohemian Rhapsody.
The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing awards tend to go the same film. However, A
Quiet Place isn’t nominated in this category. Also, I can remember several
times where the sound awards went to different films. So, I am going with
Bohemian Rhapsody, because it is a musical film and because it has more
impressive concert scenes than A Star Is Born.
Visual
Effects
And the nominees are:
Avengers:
Infinity War
Christopher
Robin
First
Man
Ready
Player One
Solo:
A Star Wars Story
My pick: First Man.
I just don’t think the Academy is going to give a superhero movie this award. The
Academy does not like going in that direction. Now, Ready Player One may be the
film that deserves this award (since it has SO many visual effects). But, First
Man is about space and it doesn’t have too many visual effects. And the Academy
loves giving this award to films that have simpler and more realistic visual
effects (Ex Machina springs to mind).
Writing
(Adapted Screenplay)
And the nominees are:
The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can
You Ever Forgive Me?
If
Beale Street Could Talk
A Star
Is Born
My pick: BlacKkKlansman.
I think the Academy is going to the same thing it did last year and give both
screenplay awards to films that have no chance at winning for Best Picture. I
think the Academy will give Spike Lee an Oscar here as a consolation for not
giving him the Best Director or Best Picture award (like they did with Jordan
Peele for Get Out). Although, I could see Can You Ever Forgive Me? being an
upset here. But my money is on Black Klansman.
Writing
(Original Screenplay)
And the nominees are:
The
Favourite
First
Reformed
Green
Book
Roma
Vice
My pick: The
Favourite. Again, this award will go to a film that won’t win any of the
big awards (Acting or Best Picture). The same thing happened with Call Me By
Your Name last year, it won a screenplay award and that’s it. Although I do think
The Favourite will win in other categories, it just won’t win any of the major
ones. So, it will get this award as a consolation prize. I could see Green Book
sneaking in and taking this one though.
Well, there you have it! My picks for the 2019 Academy Awards!
It was really difficult to make predictions this year. The odds are all over
the place for some categories. And the odds are also all over the place
regarding whether this year’s Oscars will be a train wreck or not. But, whatever
happens, I’ll be watching. Watching and judging. It’ll be an interesting night,
I can’t wait!
